Thursday, July 16, 2009

Investment Theme 1




Source: http://www.climate-policy-map.econsense.de/factsheets_download/factsheet-energy-efficiency.pdf

If a picture is worth a thousand words, then the graph above should clearly shows huge $$ signs. All the 3 major BRIC nations are at the bottom of the heap in terms of per capita consumption of "Primary Energy".

Imagine a life without gasoline, electricity and all that these vital inputs provide and help produce.

In terms of power plants, transmission grids, electrical transformers etc, clearly there remains a massive amount of money and investment that will be required. But in the case of India, I believe that primary hydrocarbon exploration represents a major multi-billion opportunity.

Allow me to list my reasons:



1. Under Explored Terrain - India is an under-explored country (seismically speaking). It is only recently that overseas companies have been allowed to explore for oil and gas. Google the phrase "NELP exploration policy" and see what you find. India's hydrocarbon czars have some what awakended from their slumber and are reacting to what is a strategic shortage and choke point.



2.
Geology - Geologically the prospect seem good with oil discoveries having been made in Rajasthan in recent years and massive gas deposits having been found off the Eastern coast in India.

A map of all the major basins can be viewed at http://www.iypeinsa.org/updates-09/art-45.pdf (looks like a 2004 document)



3.
Captive Market – India imports something like 75% of its crude requirement. With the rising middle class and the ambition/dream of every family owning an automobile or two, India is a long way away from suffering from a glut of crude oil and gas.

Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Business/India-Business/Inflation-to-average-5-in-FY10-Assocham/articleshow/4725571.cms

With most purchases of electricity being done by bankrupt State Electricity Boards, for now, I believe the singular theme as far as a energy is concerned should be E&P (Exploration & Production) plays with an India focus.

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